Dollar Rally Blocked Interest Rate Increase And Shrinking Table Concern

The US Federal Reserve, the world's most influential central bank, has attracted much attention from the market. Especially since the Federal Reserve announced its dovish increase in March, Fed officials' speeches have repeatedly triggered market shocks. According to incomplete statistics, over the past two weeks, a total of 13 Fed officials have delivered speeches, including many votes committee members this year.

Yesterday, Fed officials hawkish speech and U.S. data support, the dollar index ushered in a wavelet rebound, hitting the 100.6 highest average line, stabilized at the top of the 100.5 average line, just when the market was optimistic about the rise of the US dollar index. Federal Reserve Officials also made their faces and completed the "Hawk Dove" style conversion in less than 24 hours.

New York Fed chairman Dudley (William Dudley) said on Friday that the two increase in interest rates in 2017 seemed correct, but there was no need for haste, considering that the economy was not overheated.

To a large extent, the performance of stocks using offshore highly liquid cash is on average 2 percentage points higher than that of the big market, which may reflect the improvement in the trend of the technology industry and global economic growth over the same period.

On the decrease capital In terms of expenditure, a disproportionate number of enterprises will benefit from the immediate implementation of capital expenditure provisions, which are mainly energy companies whose share price performance is affected by the sharp fluctuations in oil prices.

Heavily indebted energy companies are highly representative, and indebted companies are often vulnerable. Interest The end of the deduction policy. Even when excluding energy companies in the analysis of indebted enterprises, the Bank of America can still get such a group of stocks that are extremely sensitive to credit policies. Their performance not only reflects policy expectations, but also represents the market's appetite for credit.

The US dollar index remains low in the day, following the decline in the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds, which is close to 2.40% below the daily low. The dollar closed for the first time in a month on Friday, but it still recorded a quarterly decline of more than 3%, which disappointed the US dollar at the beginning of the year that the US dollar would expand its earnings. And on Thursday (March 30th), Dudley also said that in financial markets, it is important not to overreact to short-term changes. It is expected that interest rates will be gradually increased in the year.

Since the election, the performance of the beneficial stock of capital expenditure is lower than that of the stock market by an average of 6 percentage points, while the stock that is most likely to be affected by the interest deduction policy is slightly higher than the stock market - less than 1%.

The handover style was unprepared for the market, and the economic data released by Dudley before the speech were very good. The data released overnight showed that the US consumer expenditure figures were flat, indicating that despite the fact that consumer confidence has reached the highest level in more than 16 years, Americans are still reluctant to increase consumer spending and the mood of the dollar has been suppressed, and the rise of the US dollar has been blocked.

In view of this, the Federal Reserve will start to shrink this year, and this is also the most concerned problem for the market. Most officials insist that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at least once this year. Among the big hawks, the big hawks say they will increase interest rates by 2 or 3 times in the year, but there are also many pigeon officials who believe that they will increase interest rates by more than 1 times a year.

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