The Magic Of The Spring Festival, The Price Of Ethylene Glycol Has Dropped.

Price changes:

Fig. 1 price chart of domestic glycol Market

Source: lung Chung

As shown in Figure 1, the price of domestic glycol market has dropped sharply after high inflation. Recently, the international crude oil contact has been lifted up due to the friction between the United States and Iraq. The superimposed weather caused partial port closure and the supply of ethylene glycol dropped. Before the beginning of the holiday, the market prices of the polyester enterprises rose sharply to the highest level of 5860 yuan / ton this year. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester replenishment is coming to the end, and the terminal weaving time is bad, and the market price has slowed down to the current 5230 yuan / ton.

Changes in supply and demand:

Fig. 2 trend chart of ethylene glycol output in China

Source: lung Chung

Fig. 3 trend of pet demand for ethylene glycol in China

Source: lung Chung

As shown in Figures 1 and 2, domestic ethylene glycol market prices have dropped, and domestic enterprises have been avoiding risks. Gold nine silver ten, the downstream polyester demand is better driven, the market price rises, the output follows up increases, along with the port stock drop, and is in the historical low for a long time. , The supply price is tight and the market price is rising again (as of January 16th). The port of East China's main port has a stock of about 354 thousand tons. Among them, 175 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, 48 thousand tons in Taicang, 65 thousand tons in Ningbo, 24 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 42 thousand tons in Jiangyin. 。 Time flies, entering January 2020, coincides with the traditional Spring Festival holiday, the end business holiday, as shown in Figure 3, the downstream polyester start-up load has dropped sharply, the domestic glycol market has increased, and the market atmosphere has been gradually reduced.

Expectations for future market:

On the supply side, domestic start-up load has been restarted, and the recent ethylene glycol link of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is expected to be put into trial run, which has a certain negative impact on the market mentality, and the terminal shipments are obviously cooling down. The probability of overall inventory accumulation increases obviously. Long Zhong information predicts that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the holiday market, while the spot is narrowing down. At the same time, it will also be accompanied by a further contraction of the base. The market will see the continuation of the shock pattern and the operation interval will be up to 5200 yuan / ton.